#美联储降息预测 (Beijing Time) December 11, 3:30 AM: Federal Reserve press conference. Powell’s 3 key remarks will directly affect market trends. 👇

❶ Will the bar for rate cuts be raised?
Currently, the market expects a “hawkish easing,” and Powell will most likely set higher conditions for rate cuts.
After all, there are major internal disagreements, and there’s concern that easing too quickly could spark a rebound in prices.
Pay close attention to whether he mentions “opposition from members against rate cuts”—this is a key signal.
❷ What about the pace of rate cuts in 2026?
Previously, there were hints of only a 25BP cut per year, with a possible pause in the first half.
If this dot plot shows only 1-2 rate cuts next year (fewer than the previous expectation of 3),
the market will likely react—a signal of a slower pace should be watched closely. 📉

❸ Inflation + employment characterization + response to structural adjustments

- Inflation: Most likely still says “below the peak but above the 2% target, stickiness remains,” not yet worried about tariffs.
- Employment: Mentions “both supply and demand are slowing, it’s a balance, not a demand slump,” no need to panic about recession.
- Structural adjustment: Most likely emphasizes “data-driven decisions, maintaining independence,” to steady market confidence, and won’t discuss impacts in depth. 💡

Volatility will be amplified at night—don’t chase trades blindly. Wait for clear signals before taking action.
Focus on the first two points—these directly determine short-term capital flows. Remember to set up risk protection. ⚖️