12.10 Morning BTC and ETH forecast analysis

After BTC rose to around 94,500 in the early morning and ETH touched the 3,400 mark, they both fell due to short-term overbought pressure, and the four-hour RSI indicator fell from the overbought range, and there was a need for a healthy correction. The current price is running above the short-term moving average, the moving average is in a bullish position, the overall upward structure has not been destroyed, and the essence of the morning shock is the tug-of-war between long and short at key resistance/support levels, waiting for the news to break the balance.

1. BTC

- Key range: support level 91000-91500 (intraday core support, early trading intensive area + moving average support), resistance level 93500-94500 (early morning high + previous shock resistance)
- Trend forecast: There is a high probability that it will fluctuate in the range of 91500-93500 in the morning, and it is difficult to break through the range without major news stimulation. If the 91,000 support is held, there is still a slight rebound to test the possibility of 94,000 before the decision, and if it falls, it will test the 90,000 integer mark to defend.
- Trading Strategy:
- Long: 91500-92000 stabilize and enter, stop loss 91000, target 93000-93500, hit the resistance and take profit in batches;
- Short: 93500-94000 enter under pressure, stop loss 94500, target 92500-92000, see support to leave;

2. ETH

- Key range: Support at 3220-3250 (intraday core support, near 50-day EMA + previous breakout), resistance at 3380-3400 (morning high + short-term strong resistance)
- Trend Forecast: The intensity of the morning shock is weaker than that of BTC, relying on the Fusaka upgrade to have a certain degree of independent resistance to decline, and there is a high probability that it will operate in the range of 3250-3380, with a limited correction. If it stands firm at 3350, it may slightly test the resistance of 3400, and if it falls below 3220, it will test the 3150-3200 support band.
- Trading Strategy:
- Long: 3250-3280 stabilizes the entry, stop loss 3220, target 3350-3380, hit the resistance and decisively take profit;
- Short: 3380-3400 under pressure, stop loss 3430, target 3320-3300, see support to leave;

Before the resolution is implemented, it is recommended to reduce the position, wait for the direction to be clear and then follow up with the trend to avoid large losses caused by poor policy expectations.
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