Just as the policy direction of central banks is gradually becoming clearer, the movement on the Japanese side is starting to make people unable to sit still.

On December 5, Bank of America economist Takayasu Kudo directly gave a prediction: at the meeting on the 18th and 19th of this month, the Bank of Japan will most likely pull interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. This is not a casual statement - corporate earnings data is improving, spring wage negotiations are showing positive signals, the yen has been struggling in the depreciation channel, and the government needs policy cooperation, the time has indeed come.

But the focus is not on this interest rate hike.

Kudo Takayasu gave a more ruthless timeline: June 2026, January and July 2027 are all marked as the next round of interest rate hikes. In other words, the Bank of Japan is ready to continue to tighten monetary policy on a semi-annual basis. This is a big turning point for Japan's financial system, which has been accustomed to a loose environment for decades.

The ripple effect could come soon. The yen exchange rate may be able to stop the decline and take a breather, the Treasury yield curve will have to be recalculated, and after the cost of borrowing money for companies rises, those companies that rely on low interest rates to survive will not have a good time. Can the real economy withstand this wave of adjustment? You have to see.

Now the market is waiting for the final result of the December meeting. After all, prediction is prediction, and it only counts when it really lands. For the global liquidity landscape, the impact of Japan's move may be more profound than it seems.