Japan's 10-year government bond yield soared to 1.948% — the highest since 2007. What's even more exaggerated is the 30-year term, with a yield of 3.44%, and the value of the bond is directly halved, evaporating by nearly 50%. 40 years? It has broken 3.70%.
For the first time since 2008, the Bank of Japan has experienced an embarrassing situation where interest expenses exceed income.
Who is bleeding? Japan's four major life insurance companies had a book loss of $67 billion, and regional banks' treasury bond holdings had a record book loss of $21.3 billion as of September 30.
There is a bigger thunder behind it: Japan's government debt is 230% of GDP, and inflation is still rising. Rate hike in December? The market gives an 80% probability. The problem is that the central bank holds 52% of the country's treasury bonds and cannot sell them at all.
Over the past three decades, global investors have relied on cheap yen arbitrage to push up various assets. Now that this money printing machine is about to turn off, how big of a wave will it make?
Wait and see.
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MoneyBurnerSociety
· 11h ago
This wave of operations of the Bank of Japan is a typical "digging holes and jumping by yourself" - 52% of government bonds are in hand but cannot be moved, which is what we often call the liquidation price is the target price. Life insurance companies and regional banks collectively floated losses, and proper professional leek awards.
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DevChive
· 11h ago
Japan's national debt exploded, life insurance and local banks lay flat directly, and $67 billion was gone, which is really amazing.
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StakeWhisperer
· 11h ago
Japan's wave really can't be stretched, the central bank has to hold on to 52% of the treasury bonds, which is the most heart-wrenching place, it seems that the era of arbitrage is really coming to an end
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wrekt_but_learning
· 11h ago
Japan really can't hold this wave, and the central bank has to hold 52% of the treasury bonds
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tx_or_didn't_happen
· 11h ago
Japan is really going to blow up, life insurance and regional banks are afraid that they will be cut leeks, and the central bank still holds half of the treasury bonds in its hands and can't move, which is a trap
Japan's 10-year government bond yield soared to 1.948% — the highest since 2007. What's even more exaggerated is the 30-year term, with a yield of 3.44%, and the value of the bond is directly halved, evaporating by nearly 50%. 40 years? It has broken 3.70%.
For the first time since 2008, the Bank of Japan has experienced an embarrassing situation where interest expenses exceed income.
Who is bleeding? Japan's four major life insurance companies had a book loss of $67 billion, and regional banks' treasury bond holdings had a record book loss of $21.3 billion as of September 30.
There is a bigger thunder behind it: Japan's government debt is 230% of GDP, and inflation is still rising. Rate hike in December? The market gives an 80% probability. The problem is that the central bank holds 52% of the country's treasury bonds and cannot sell them at all.
Over the past three decades, global investors have relied on cheap yen arbitrage to push up various assets. Now that this money printing machine is about to turn off, how big of a wave will it make?
Wait and see.