Tonight's PCE data may directly determine the direction of the market.

The "September core PCE", which has been delayed by the U.S. government shutdown for two months, is finally about to be revealed. The timing is delicate - this is the last blockbuster data that can affect the Fed's decision before the FOMC meeting on December 10.

The market is now staring at this window.

If the PCE rate is more than 2.9% annually, or the monthly rate is higher than 0.2%, then things are not good: inflation has not yet been suppressed, expectations of interest rate cuts will be suppressed, and the rebound some time ago is likely to be just a trap for longing. There may be a sharp drop without warning at any time tonight.

From a technical point of view, Ethereum has begun to react in advance. The intraday aggressive support range is 3070-2970, and the short-term key support is 2935-2915. The upper pressure is at 3210, which is critical - as long as it does not break through, the weak pattern is not over yet.

The rebound high of 3160 in the afternoon is indeed a good shorting opportunity. Some people simultaneously laid out BTC short orders and harvested on both lines.

However, the real opportunity is often hidden in the "emotional needle" before and after the data is released - either panic insertion or false breakthrough to lure more. At this time, it is the most suitable node to start.

Before the data lands, stay vigilant. Don't rush to chase highs, and don't blindly buy the bottom. Wait for the market to give a clear signal, and then it is not too late to do it.