Fed decision day is approaching. Here's the real question traders should be asking: which scenario poses a greater threat to risk assets—a rate cut with hawkish forward guidance, or a cut accompanied by dovish signals?

The paradox is real. A hawkish cut might signal the Fed's concern about persistent inflation, potentially limiting future easing. Meanwhile, a dovish cut could suggest economic weakness that warrants aggressive loosening. Both paths carry distinct implications for liquidity and volatility.

Market positioning matters here. If everyone's pricing in the same outcome, the reaction to any deviation could be sharp. What's your read on the bigger risk?