It's going to be a fryer next week, are you mentally prepared? The Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, and it is another week of reports on global commodities, and domestic import and export data are coming out. When these things come together, it is strange that the market is not noisy.

Let's talk about the main event first - the Fed scene. At 3 a.m. on December 11 (yes, it's time to stay up late again), the results of the FOMC meeting were released. The market now offers an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is basically a certainty. But what really depends is how the dot plot and economic forecasts will be adjusted, and once this thing changes, the logic of gold and silver, the stock market and even the crypto market will have to change.

The commodity market does not stop here. At 00:30 a.m. on December 10, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is going to issue a report, and the market is speculating whether the inventory of US soybeans will be raised again, and the prices of soybean meal and oil are estimated to be shaking. Immediately after 12:30 noon, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will also release data, rumored that inventories may hit a six-and-a-half-year high, palm oil is going to be targeted by bears?

On the domestic side, November trade data will be released on December 8. The import and export situation of iron ore, steel, coal and other things directly reflects whether domestic demand is okay. As soon as this data came out, black products had to make waves again.

Industrial metals have been going crazy lately. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have rushed to more than $11,500 per ton, a record high. Mine supply is already tight, and AI and new energy are eating copper there, and some people say that there may really be a substantial shortage in 2026. This logic sounds really hard, but now that the price is chasing more, you have to weigh whether you are bold enough.

The energy and chemical sector is also in the game. On the polysilicon side, large factories collectively reduced production, and production fell directly by 14.48% in November. Soda ash is now in a state of high output and demand, it depends on whether the maintenance of large factories can hold a price. The crude oil market is waiting for OPEC's monthly report, and supply risks from Russia and Venezuela have also been hanging.

The shipping market is also quite lively. Container shipping companies have raised prices one after another, but far-month contracts still have to worry about the pressure of resumption of sailing. On the lithium carbonate side, the resumption of production in Jiangxi has been delayed again and again, the supply recovery is slower than expected, and the market sentiment is brewing, and I don't know if there will be a sudden wave.

The glass in the building materials is a bit interesting. Enterprise inventories fell by nearly 5% month-on-month, and the valuation of far-month contracts was low, but the positions were frighteningly high.

With so many things piling up next week, which one do you think will become the main line?