Next Wednesday, the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points? The probability given by the market is 87%. At the same time, the wind of interest rate hikes in Japan is getting tighter.

One slammed on the accelerator, and the other began to step on the brakes - where will these two forces pull A-shares?

Let's talk about the Fed's interest rate cut. This is good news for U.S. stocks, and a big rise is almost certain. Once the US stock market takes off, the European and Asia-Pacific markets will most likely follow. Hong Kong stocks? A-shares? The possibility of following the rise is quite high.

But what if Japan really raises interest rates? That's another story. In the past few years, the yen interest rate was close to zero or even negative, and global investors frantically borrowed yen to buy US stocks and US bonds - this is one of the important engines that support the long bull of US assets.

What now? Japan's interest rate hike will narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, and the Fed's interest rate cut will depress US bond yields. Investors settle their accounts: Okay, hurry up and dump U.S. stocks and bonds, pay off the yen loan, and don't wait for the interest to rise again. Technology stocks are especially dangerous, and the selling pressure will be fierce.

So the situation is: interest rate cuts are a big benefit to the global stock market, interest rate hikes are a small trouble for US stocks, and a big thunder for Japanese stocks. In the interest rate hike cycle, the probability of the stock market going down is much higher than the rise, and the risk of Japanese stocks falling miserably is not small.

What about A-shares? The Fed's interest rate cut drove U.S. stocks up, which is a real positive. As long as the US stock market is still rising, the bull market of A-shares can last for a long time. As for the collapse of the Japanese stock market, will it not collapse? To be honest, the impact on us is limited, so don't worry too much.

More importantly, the Fed has begun to cut interest rates, and it is very likely that we will follow up in January next year. What does the interest rate cut mean for A-shares? Liquidity is loose, capital is improving, and the slow bull market is likely to continue to be interpreted. 5000 points? Not a dream.

See you next week, I wish you all the positions in your hands can eat meat!