As almost all major assets are trading in a range, analysts emphasize that the tone of Jerome Powell's speech, rather than the rate cut itself, may determine the market’s next real trend.

In recent days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $88,000 and $93,000, and as the year-end approaches, liquidity is gradually declining. Ethereum is holding around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. During this period of wait-and-see, the total crypto market cap has dropped to around $3.1 trillion.

ETF Flows Show Rotation Into Altcoins
Despite the lackluster price action, exchange-traded funds reveal a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin ETF products saw outflows of approximately $60 million on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted combined net inflows of $74 million.

Market On Hold Ahead of Fed’s “Binary” Week
Analysts describe market sentiment as a “market waiting to be triggered.” Most traders are holding back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with a December rate cut considered the baseline scenario.
Some experts believe the rate cut is fully priced in. However, Powell’s policy guidance will be even more critical—especially whether 2026 policy remains tight or shifts to a more accommodative stance.
They believe Bitcoin is likely to consolidate near $91,000 unless Powell surprises the market.

Liquidity Dries Up, Derivatives Traders Exit
QCP Capital noted that the weekend’s sharp moves—BTC rising from $88,000 to $92,000, Ethereum from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how scarce year-end liquidity has become.
Open interest has dropped significantly:
Bitcoin open interest has declined by over 44% since October
Ethereum open interest has dropped by over 50%
Retail trader participation has also plummeted, with Google search interest falling back to bear market lows.
Nonetheless, long-term buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Over the past two weeks, around 25,000 BTC have flowed out of centralized exchanges, and ETF and corporate holdings have now surpassed spot reserves on exchanges, intensifying the structural supply shortage. However, in the absence of macro catalysts, this steady absorption is not enough to push prices out of the range.

Powell’s Speech Will Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move
Analysts agree that tomorrow’s policy guidance will set the tone for the final weeks of 2025. If a more cautious or “hawkish” stance is signaled, Bitcoin could fall back to the $88,000 area.
If the outlook is more dovish, or hints at another rate cut in early 2026, prices could push up to $93,000–$95,000, and if momentum returns, may even test $97,000–$106,000. At that point, the dominant strategy remains to wait and see.
Market deadlock—the next move depends entirely on Powell’s statement.