The market is now consumed here. Bitcoin is grinding back and forth around 92,500, and Ethereum is directly nailed at 3,150. Rebound? It's long gone. Fell? I can't smash it again. Why didn't everyone dare to move? It's all waiting for tonight's number.

PCE inflation index – that's it.

How critical is this thing? This is what the Fed is eyeing, and CPI is secondary. A while ago, the government shut down for a long time, and the official data was directly cut off, and now the first official report is finally going to be issued. Institutions, retail investors, and the central bank themselves are all squatting here and waiting.

What does the market think? Most people predict that the overall PCE annual rate will reach 2.8%, compared to 2.7% last time. Core PCE is likely to be 2.9%. At first glance, it sounds okay? But the Fed's target is 2%! Bank of America has already said: Don't expect it to drop back before 2027. If this is the case, inflation will have exceeded the standard for 55 consecutive months.

The Fed will meet next week, and now 87% are betting on a third rate cut of 25 basis points. But everything depends on tonight: the data is in line with expectations, or lower? Interest rate cuts are basically stable. What if inflation explodes more than expected? This rate cut may have to be paused.

The U.S. stock market is also tense. The S&P 500 is almost at an all-time high, with a bunch of people worried that AI and data centers will burn too much money and have an accident, while others are counting on interest rate cuts to save the economy. If inflation really falls, US stocks may generally rise; Ugly numbers? Someone must have started throwing it.

More direct for the crypto market - risk assets such as small-cap stocks and the crypto sector are the most sensitive to interest rates. Tonight's data is beautiful, institutions may begin to increase their positions; Data pulls the crotch, and funds are withdrawn faster than anyone else.

Now this sideways game is waiting for the referee to blow the whistle. See the real chapter tonight.