After eight years of watching the market, I am more and more convinced of one thing: the current turmoil is not a partisan drama at all, but a battle for survival in which the US debt is up to the ceiling.

Government shutdown? That's just an appetizer. The real bomb is the $41 trillion debt — yes, forty-one trillion.

Let's look at a few numbers first. The total size of U.S. debt has exceeded 41 trillion yuan, spread to every American, and the average person carries a hole of 120,000 knives. What is this concept? It is equivalent to owing a down payment on a home at birth. Ratio of debt to GDP? 132%。 It has already crossed the 100% growth stagnation line, and the extra 32 points are basically relying on "borrowing new debts to repay old debts".

Even more outrageous is the interest expense. It costs $1.1 trillion a year in interest repayment alone, which is $200 billion more than defense spending. In other words, nearly two cents of the taxes collected by the government go directly into the pockets of creditors for education, medical care, and infrastructure? There are very few left. If this continues, shutdowns will only become the norm.

The key is that if we continue to issue bonds indiscriminately, the US dollar credit will not be able to bear it sooner or later. Now the 30-year mortgage interest rate is close to 8%, and the monthly payment has risen by 30% compared with last year. If U.S. Treasury yields jump further, what will central banks around the world do? Selling U.S. bonds and reducing U.S. dollar holdings is the real ripple effect.

So don't just stare at politicians to fight, debt is the time bomb that is really counting down. The logic of the market has long changed, and it is impossible to see this clearly, no matter how much you toss, it is in vain.