This week's rate cuts may just be an appetizer, and the real highlight is on Powell's lips.

The market is eyeing the 25 basis point at 3 a.m. on Thursday, but don't forget that there will be a press conference half an hour later. Powell's interest rate cut this time was completely pushed by the data - his previous attitude was obviously "if you can't cut it, you won't cut it". Now that he has been forced to surrender, do you think he will release a dovish signal in his speech?

Just settle the accounts and you'll know. After the interest rate cut, the federal funds rate fell to around 3.5%, just stepping on the line of the neutral interest rate, to put it bluntly, it is no longer a "tightening policy". But what about inflation? CPI is still at 3%, one cut short of the Fed's 2% target. The economic data has not collapsed, and the resilience of the job market is still there.

What does this combination mean? The Fed's reasons to continue cutting interest rates are disappearing. Powell is likely to use this speech to kill words and give the market a preventive shot - don't expect consecutive interest rate cuts to follow.

So my judgment is: after the interest rate cut boots land, the market may not be as simple as "exhausting the good news" according to the script, but will turn directly. The short-term pullback pressure will be relatively large, and it will take at least a few weeks to digest. My own operation is to lay out some long-term short orders on the rise, with a multiple of 10 times, with the current environment, I think this odds can be bet.

Of course, if you have a conservative style, it's okay not to move. It's too late to buy the bottom when it really falls down next year - because the situation will change in the second half of the year. There is a high probability that the policy will turn after the new chairman takes office, and once liquidity is liberalized, it will not be a problem for the new upward cycle to run for 3 to 5 years.

Now is the most difficult time before dawn. The cow is not dead, but tired, and has only rested for half a year.

Today is not bad, all three orders are collected, all in the profit range.