#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 crucial week is here. The amount of information in the past two days has been quite large -

On the one hand, there are many factions in the circle advocating a "super cycle", saying that the four-year cycle may end early, and we will have to wait for a longer cycle to see a new big wave; On the other hand, the White House's official announcement will be "good for the economy", and the market is speculating whether this is a greeting to risk assets; Standard Chartered Bank directly cut the price target of BTC next year from $200,000 to 100,000, and although the long-term target is still 500,000, it has been pushed back to 2030, the reason is that institutional demand is not so enthusiastic, and ETF money is not as fast as expected.

To put it simply: some people say "this round is different", and some people quietly lower their expectations, and the whole market does not know how to go in this divergence.

However, there are also a few clues - the funds did not actually run, but just changed their tastes and began to quietly ambush some small currencies. The rebound in on-chain activity indicates that someone is indeed secretly deploying. Uncertainty at the macro level is all pressed on this Wednesday (the central bank's decision-making speech), and although the sentiment is sluggish, it has not yet collapsed and is in a state of accumulation.

In the final analysis, where the market can go this week is not determined by the K-line, but by how Powell expresses his position. Once the signal of interest rate cuts is released, the market may directly switch from "stuffiness" to "carnival mode", and funds and emotions can resonate. On the contrary, if you encounter internal disagreements, you will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Either way, this week was a watershed moment for the second half of the year – a moment when typical emotions overwhelmed the data.

What do you think? Will Powell release pigeons or eagles this time?