The Fed's decision at 3 a.m. on the 11th was not the 25 basis points that really made the market tremble - it was every word Powell said.

Let's talk directly about the conclusion: a 25bp rate cut basically can't run away, but the supporting words will make you doubt your life. Continuous interest rate cuts? This meeting will press this fantasy to the ground and rub it.

The probability distribution is as follows: 88% chance of a 25bp cut, 11% unchanged, and only 1% of a 50bp drop. Market pricing has paved the way for 25bps.

The script for this drama is actually very clear - sugar and knives are ready. Interest rate cuts are sugar, dot plots and press conferences are knives. Coax you into the market with sugar first, and then use a knife to decide whether you earn fluctuations or be eaten by fluctuations.

Why is there a high probability of dropping? Three reasons weigh on the table.

First, the tail risk of employment data is hardening. The labor market is marginally weakening, the probability of policy accidents is rising, and the Fed is now more inclined to use small actions for risk management rather than hard work.

Second, the data fog turns big moves into big gambles. With government shutdowns delaying the release of key statistics and incomplete information, the Commission is more likely to opt for a small calibration rather than betting heavily.

Third, Powell's constraints are not macro data, but internal governance. When the differences between hawks and doves intensified, he wanted a manageable compromise: give the market an unexpected action, give the hawks a narrative that will not let go, and firmly hold the discretion of the future in his own hands.

Of course, it is also possible not to fall. Letting go early when inflation is still above 2% will be seen as a credit discount by hawks. The greater the divergence, the more people advocate exchanging fixed interest rates for consensus.

The most likely landing version? Down 25 basis points, the statement is hawkish, and the press conference is more hawkish. Powell will drive three nails into your head: policy is still restrictive, and subsequent meeting-by-meeting evaluations, market pricing is not equal to the Fed's commitment.

The three needles on the night of the resolution hurt the most: whether the expression of employment in the statement is weaker, whether the median path of 2026 in the dot plot is higher or more divided, and whether the press conference takes the initiative to pressure financial conditions to relax too quickly.

Therefore, even if interest rates are cut, they may not necessarily rise. The probability of needle insertion back and forth is extremely high.

Now big money only trades US stocks and Bitcoin, because these two targets have a real value foundation.