$BTC break through 100000, $ETH to 4000!

The highlight of global monitoring tonight is here - the Federal Reserve is going to throw a "schizophrenic bomb". The market is betting on a third rate cut, but what really makes people nervous is the weird combination: while releasing water, shouting "don't expect me to keep putting it". This is the legendary hawkish rate cut.

** How much is the contradiction torn apart? **
The interior is already noisy. A group of people stared at the weak employment data, feeling that the economy would have a hard landing if interest rates were not cut; Another group of people stared at the core PCE's 2.8% inflation rate, warning that easing was over. Worse still, the government shutdown has led to the lack of critical data, and they are now making decisions almost with their eyes closed.

**In these three moments tonight, every second is the tip of a knife**

Let's talk about Powell's speech first. The fine-tuning of any word in the post-meeting statement is a flare. Goldman Sachs predicts that the statement is likely to imply that "the threshold for further interest rate cuts has been raised." Every time he emphasizes "data dependence", the market's illusions about continuous interest rate cuts are shattered.

Let's look at the dot plot and voting wars. This thing exposes the real divisions within officials. The voting session is estimated to be another bloody battle: director Milan may once again advocate a direct 50 basis point cut, while hawks like Schmid will vote against it. A pigeon and an eagle,-for-tat.

Finally, there is the stealthy action of the balance sheet. The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet in October and may announce a resumption of bond purchases tonight to ease market pressures (although they will emphasize that this is not quantitative easing). If this is done, the faucet of global mobility will be subtly loosened.

**Macro "option expiration dates" in the crypto market **

This resolution is like an option expiration at the macro level for the crypto circle, and the result may go down three paths:

· Benchmark playbook (hawkish rate cut): Lowered, but hinted at a pause next. Bitcoin may rush in the short term, but it is difficult to get out of the trend market, and there is a high probability of violent shocks.

· Surprise script (unexpected dove): Make it clear that it will continue to be loose in the future. On-chain liquidity may return, and assets such as Ethereum have the opportunity to outperform the independent market.

· Worst scenario (tougher than expected): It directly hints that there may be no rate cut or even interest rate hike next year. That is, the liquidity crunch is expected to return in full swing, and the crypto market is expected to experience a round of deep washing.