The head of fixed income at Royal Bank of Canada recently made an interesting point - the Fed will most likely cut interest rates this time, but it may be the "last supper".

Their chief Andrzej Skiba said this: Although a rate cut at this month's meeting is almost certain, this rate cut is full of hawkish flavor. The U.S. economy is gaining momentum now, and there may be no need to continue to release water next.

What is more critical is the time node. In their judgment, inflation data and the performance of the job market have actually given the Fed a reason to "pause". After this drop, we will wait and see for a while at the beginning of next year, and we will talk about it when the economic trend is clearer.

It is expected that there will be disagreements at the meeting. Some people want to cut more, while others feel that there is no need to cut at all - this internal pull itself shows the subtlety of the policy shift.

Looking ahead, if the U.S. economy really accelerates as expected in 2026, the need for interest rate cuts will basically disappear. Of course, the Fed may change its term again in May due to political considerations, but from the perspective of economic fundamentals, there is a high probability that it will enter a wait-and-see period in the future.

For the crypto market, this means that liquidity expectations may be cooling. Short-term interest rate cuts are good, but if the "last cut" comes true, the subsequent market will have to rely on its own story.