Tonight, traders around the world are staring at a point in time - 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.

The Fed is about to announce a new round of interest rate decisions. On the surface, this time there is a high probability that it will be lowered by 25 basis points, adjusting the interest rate range to 3.5%-3.75%, continuing the rhythm of the previous two times. But what's inside? The undercurrent is turbulent.

The most subtle thing is that the Fed is about to quarrel within. A group of people stared at the employment data: recruitment was shrinking in October, layoffs were increasing, and the economy could not bear it if it was not relaxed; The other faction is holding on to inflation: core PCE is still hanging at 2.8%, which is far from the 2% target.

So there is a twisted word - "hawkish interest rate cut". The drop is down, but the words have to be ruthless: this may be the last time in the near future.

**A few must-see points tonight:**

What did Powell say? **
The wording at the press conference was the highlight. Goldman Sachs speculates that the wording may return to the saying that "further adjustment depends on the situation". Translated: Don't expect to cut interest rates so smoothly next.

Will dot plots and polls be upset? **
There is a high probability that there will be several votes against this vote. Kansas City's Schmid will vote against it again; St. Louis' Musalem may also side with hawks, citing inflationary pressures; On the contrary, director Milan may come the other way around - thinking that 25 basis points is not enough and directly shouting 50 basis points. This internal tear is enough to choke.

What should I do if I fight with data? **
Inflation has not yet fallen in place, and employment has begun to soften again. The Fed is caught in the middle, and both ends are not pleased.

Will the balance sheet reduction turn around? **
There is also an unpopular highlight: they just stopped "shrinking their balance sheet" in October, and now the market is tight, and they may have to sneak back to buy some bonds. Although it will not explicitly say "quantitative easing", it means similarly.

**So? **

This rate cut is like walking a tightrope - releasing water while collecting expectations. The market is already a little mentally prepared, but if the signal of "last time" is really solid, it is really hard to say how to repric. Can BTC take the opportunity to make a splash? Will ETH follow suit or go its separate ways? How will old currencies like ZEC react?

What do you think Powell will do tonight?