At 3 a.m. tonight, global traders are staring at the same moment - the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Almost all institutions are betting on the same result: another 25 basis points cut, bringing the federal funds rate to the range of 3.5%-3.75%. This is the third rate cut this year.

But this time it's different.

An unprecedented split is taking place within the Fed:
- A group of people panicked when they looked at the employment data and felt that they had to continue to release water;
- Another faction stared at the inflation numbers and believed that easing was over.

So there is this magic operation - "hawkish interest rate cut". What do you mean? It is a superficial interest rate cut, but it is hinted at inside and out: "Don't expect to have it next time." "

**Four key points that determine how the market will go tonight:**

**Powell's Rhetorical Game**
Every word at the press conference is worth chewing repeatedly. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that he may reactivate that vague rhetoric - "we remain flexible about the magnitude and timing of future adjustments." Translated: Do you want us to drop again? The threshold is high.

How serious will the vote split be? **
This dot plot update may result in multiple downvotes:
- Kansas City's Schmid is expected to vote against again;
- More than a third of economists believe that St. Louis Fed's Musalem will also oppose it, citing inflationary pressures remaining;
- To make matters even more dramatic, Governor Milan may reverse the move – demanding a direct 50 basis point cut.

Internally, you think the market can not be nervous?

**Data is Fighting**
Core PCE inflation did fall to 2.8% in September, but it is still far from the 2% target. At the same time, the job market began to show signs of fatigue in October - hiring was decreasing and layoffs were increasing.

To drop or not to fall? This is the dilemma the Fed is facing now.

**Balance sheet reduction may be paused**
In addition to interest rates, there is another signal worth noting: the Fed just announced in October that it would stop shrinking its balance sheet, and now the bond-buying program may be restarted due to market liquidity pressures. Although the scale is not large, the direction has changed.

**Ultimately**

The weirdest thing about this resolution is that it tightens market expectations while making easing moves. The Fed is walking a tightrope.

How will BTC react if the signal of "last rate cut" is confirmed? Can the trend of ETH continue? Will the entire crypto market be repriced due to changes in liquidity expectations?

See you at 3 a.m. tonight. What do you think Powell will put out?