Will the Fed be torn apart internally in 2025? I just saw some surprising news - most of the decision-makers who have the right to vote next year feel that "interest rate cuts are not urgent".

The director Milan was very anxious, directly shouting that the economy could not bear it, and had to quickly cut interest rates to the "neutral level", and was also thinking about allocating more U.S. bonds to the balance sheet. Another dovish Waller also echoed, saying that the job market is a big problem now, inflation is not a problem at all, and it should be lowered in December, and then take a step to see it.

But here's the problem – it's the minority that is in a hurry. The attitude of the majority of voting committee members is obviously "wait first, then observe", which is a bit interesting. Previously, the market was holding back and waiting for a rapid interest rate cut cycle, but now it seems that it has to recalculate expectations.

Not to mention the impact of this on the stock market and bond market, the key is on the side of crypto assets - if liquidity expectations change, short-term volatility may have to intensify. The attitude of more than half of the decision-makers to hold back shows that next year's money bag will not be so easy to loosen.

The most reliable operation at the moment is to keep an eye on the public statements of those voting members next year to see how they interpret the data. Don't just look at the superficial position, you have to listen to how they handle the four words "data dependence". There are too many market variables, and it is wiser to be stable in terms of configuration.