#数字资产生态回暖 $BTC broke through 100,000 and $ETH pulled to 4,000 - the market is betting that this will play out after the Fed's decision.

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, global traders will hold their breath. The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision, and the basics are certain: the third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, with interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75%.

But the problem is that this rate cut is not so "straightforward".

The Fed is torn apart internally. A group of people are afraid of the collapse of employment and will continue to release water; Another group of people stared at the inflation data and felt it was time to hit the brakes. The result? A new word is gaining popularity – "hawkish rate cuts." To put it bluntly: I'm right to cut interest rates, but don't expect us to continue to cut them.

**Listen to what the leaders say**

Powell's press conference was the culmination of the show. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the cautious old saying will reappear in the statement: "further adjustments in magnitude and timing." Translated into words: The difficulty of the next interest rate cut is full.

**Dot plots tell the truth**

The dot plot, which reflects Fed officials' expectations, will be updated soon. This time there are likely to be multiple votes against it - which is rare in rate cut cycles. Schmid (president of the Kansas City Fed) had already opposed it once last month, and this time he will vote again. What about St. Louis Fed President Musalem? More than a third of economists bet that he would also oppose it, citing inflation or the sword hanging over his head. There is also director Milan, who may want to take a dose of "50 basis points" - make big news in the dovish ranks.

**The data is really not optimistic**

Core PCE inflation was 2.8% in September, which looks like it has fallen, but it is still far from the 2% target. At the same time, recruitment is slowing down, layoffs are increasing, and employment data is starting to flash yellow. The Fed is in a dilemma.

**There is still a big move that has not been revealed**

In addition to interest rates, they may also announce the resumption of bond purchases. Although the scale is not enough to be called "quantitative easing", this signal is strong enough at a time when market funds are tight. In October, they decided to stop shrinking their balance sheet, and now they may have to do the opposite. What this means for liquidity in the crypto market is self-evident.