At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Fed is going to amplify its moves - after the two-day policy meeting, the interest rate decision is about to be announced. Powell will hold a press conference half an hour later, which is estimated to be another "style interpretation contest".

Will interest rates be cut or not? CME's data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 87.6%, and the probability of not cutting is only 12.4%. Wall Street has already digested this, and you see that the S&P 500 is still hovering near its all-time high.

To be honest, traders don't care whether this cut will be cut or not at all right now - everyone thinks it is inevitable, although there is still a fierce debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What is really deadly? It is how Powell speaks at the press conference, and the subtle changes in wording and tone are the focus.

Why? Because this is directly related to the direction of the Fed's monetary policy next year. This is what the market is most concerned about now - it doesn't matter what happens this year, next year is the key. If Powell reveals a hawkish signal, the market may change its face instantly; If we continue to take a moderate course, we will have to rise.

Anyway, tonight is not destined to be peaceful, keep an eye on it.