At 3 a.m., the Fed's December interest rate cut decision is about to be announced. The market currently expects an 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which means that liquidity may usher in a new turning point.

The market reaction has come early: BTC hit a high of $94,500 last night and is currently stable around $92,000, with a 24-hour increase of 3.4%; ETH performed stronger, breaking through the $3,300 mark and rising 5.7% on the day; Even SOL recorded a 4.1% increase. The numbers look beautiful, but the story behind them is not that simple.

In the past 24 hours, $120 million of long orders have been liquidated on the entire network. Some people chased higher when BTC hit 94,000, and some were forced to leave the market due to the violent fluctuations of ETH. The interest rate cut market has never been a playground for unilateral rises, but more like a battlefield that tests patience and judgment.

Looking back at the first interest rate cut in September this year, the market speculated in advance, but after the decision was announced, BTC fell from 117,000 to 111,000. Will it be repeated this time?

The flow of funds reveals some clues: about $230 million has flowed into compliant custodial wallets in BTC and ETH in the past 24 hours. Institutions have obviously already laid out, and what they are waiting for may be the last wave of rise driven by retail sentiment. When ETH touched $3,300, the long position on a mainstream exchange had already touched the warning zone.

Interest rate cuts may indeed lead to liquidity easing, but the real opportunity belongs to those who can observe calmly and judge accurately. The market never gives certainty, but probability. On this night, staying awake is more important than keeping an eye on the market.