Are the boots of interest rate cuts about to land?

The signal given by the futures market is clear - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed has soared to nearly 90%. The US dollar index weakened in response, which has suddenly become friendly to the macro environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

But then again, there is a subtle point now: the expectation of interest rate cuts has long been chewed up by the market. In the short term, it is no longer the protagonist of the market. What is really worth keeping an eye on is what the Fed will say and do next. Are they continuing to release water? Or a sudden hawkish turn? This is the key variable that determines the subsequent trajectory of cryptocurrencies.

The short-term fluctuations of mainstream currencies such as BTC, ETH, and DOGE mostly depend on the face of the central bank. For us investors, we need to pay more attention at this point in time - we must not only pay attention to the temperature of market sentiment, but also keep an eye on the weather vane on the policy side. Be flexible in strategy and don't stick to a certain direction.

In the final analysis, rational judgment is always more reliable than chasing hot spots. Market opportunities are that you have to live long to have the last laugh.