Tonight early morning, the Federal Reserve will deliver its final task of the year.

Cut 25 basis points? This is virtually a certainty—the market's probability is 89.4%. Now, whether institutions or retail investors, everyone is watching the same thing.

The interest rate cut itself is no longer the main focus; what truly matters is how the "dot plot" will look after the cut.

If they only cut 25 basis points and then provide a forward guidance saying "don't expect next year," the market is very likely to turn downward immediately.