2025-12-10 10:34:24

Recently, there's been renewed discussion in the community: is the Bitcoin "four-year halving cycle" about to fail?

Some voices suggest that the crypto market may be moving towards the so-called "super cycle"—no longer the traditional alternating bull and bear markets, but rather a sustained main rally lasting several years, similar to Nvidia. The logic behind this judgment is the continuous inflow of institutional funds, changes in the global liquidity environment, and the gradual solidification of crypto assets as an alternative allocation.

But the question also arises: will the historical pattern really be broken? Or is this just optimism in the mid-stage of a bull market? After all, every cycle has someone claiming "this time is different."

Do you think BTC will follow a long-term upward trend similar to tech stocks, or will it still be subject to cyclical laws?

BTC-2.16%

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SatoshiChallenger

· 12-10 11:04

Here we go again, "This time it's really different" [smirking]. Every bull market says the same, and what’s the result? Data shows that the group shouting for a super cycle almost all got wiped out in the last round. Nvidia’s comparison is also absurd; they have cash flow and products, what do we have? A string of code? Ironically, institutional entry has indeed changed something, but it’s the amplitude of volatility, not the essence of the cycle. BTC will still have cycles, just possibly more intense. In the face of historical laws, no one is an exception, including Bitcoin. If you don’t believe it, see you in five years.

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AirdropChaser

· 12-10 11:04

It's the same story again... Every time they say this time is different, but in the end, it still drops as usual. Institutional entry has indeed changed some things, but if you want to completely break the cycle? I don't believe it; history will repeat itself.

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GasWaster

· 12-10 11:01

Every round, someone claims this time will be different, but in the end, they get proven wrong. This time probably won't be an exception either.

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CryptoMom

· 12-10 11:01

Listen, listen, I hear this kind of talk every bull market. It's really just "wolf crying wolf." Super cycle? I think it's still institutions telling stories to retail investors, encouraging everyone to buy the dip. The law of cycles is unbreakable; ultimately, BTC can't escape its fate.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 12-10 10:46

I think this rhetoric cycles every bull market. Institutional entry, liquidity, alternative allocations... all sound correct, but when a bear market actually arrives, it breaks the defenses. BTC is still the same thing at its core; the cyclical law is written into the code.

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MetaEggplant

· 12-10 10:39

Talking about super cycles again, always saying the same thing. When the market drops, it's everyone else's fault.

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MetaMaximalist

· 12-10 10:38

nah man, the "supercycle" thesis is just cope from people who fomo'd at the top. institutional adoption isn't some magic wand that deletes market cycles—network effects don't override volatility, they just raise the floor. btc's still bound by macro liquidity, whatever the vcs are pumping in their decks.

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