The Fed's last interest rate decision meeting of the year is approaching—we'll find out at 3 AM tonight.

Don't focus too much on the 25 basis point cut; the market has already priced in a 90% probability. The real factors that will determine the future market direction are these three things:

**First, how will RMP wording be expressed?**
Will Powell specifically mention terms like "reserve management" or "organic growth"? Will they directly confirm the January start with a scale of 45 billion? Once confirmed, US stocks could potentially surge sharply.

**Second, how dispersed is the dot plot?**
Look at the forecast divergence for 2026. Some members are aggressively bearish on interest rate spreads, others still want to hike, indicating internal disagreements. This will put significant pressure on long-term US Treasuries.

**Third, how many dissenting votes are there?**
Two dissenting votes might be acceptable; if there are three or more, the market could panic, feeling that internal risks at the Fed are increasing, and the dollar might dip sharply in the short term.

**In simple terms:**
The Fed is essentially playing a game of "secretly resuming QE by stealth but not admitting it." They are using technical means to inject liquidity into the market while attempting to hide the deep internal disagreements and political struggles over the rate cut policy itself. Tonight's press conference will be the climax of this act.