What direction will the Federal Reserve personnel changes steer the crypto market? This question has recently kept many awake at night.

Looking back at the rate cut last December, a 25 basis point adjustment directly pushed BTC to the edge of $100,000, with daily liquidations soaring to $702 million and over 250,000 accounts being forced to liquidate. Before the market could catch its breath, discussions about new Federal Reserve Chair candidates had already begun—Hasset is leading with an 80% favorability, and this guy is a representative of the "aggressive rate cut" camp.

Interestingly, his style is completely opposite to that of the current Chair Powell. Powell prefers to watch data slowly develop, while Hasset tends to think "as long as inflation doesn't spiral out of control, just stimulate the economy quickly." Remember the 50 basis point rate cut in September last year? BTC shot up to $63,000, with shorts being wiped out near $200 million. If Hasset really takes office and implements even more aggressive rate cuts, liquidity could flood into the market like a bursting dam.

However, PGIM analysts poured cold water on that: Fed decisions require approval from the entire committee. Even if Hasset wants to be aggressive, he must consider the opinions of others. Some institutions predict that if he takes office in 2026, the total rate cuts for the year could reach 100 basis points, and the neutral interest rate might even fall below 2.5%. As the dollar depreciates, assets like BTC, often called "digital gold," could theoretically benefit from capital outflows—last September’s breakout above $60,000 is an example.

But the real issue is that policy uncertainty itself is the biggest risk. Will the Fed maintain its independence or be influenced by politics? Market volatility is likely to become even more intense. It’s too early to talk about bottom fishing now; let’s see how this personnel drama unfolds.