Tonight at 3 a.m., the Federal Reserve is about to make a move. Will they cut interest rates by 25 basis points? Wall Street has already guessed this early. But have you noticed, the bond market veterans have been acting very unusually lately—long-term Treasury yields are actually climbing. Something's not right.

To be clear, the traders are not mainly worried about whether there will be a rate cut or not; they’re more concerned about what Powell will say after the meeting. The old man opens his mouth, and the market immediately changes direction.

I'm thinking there are roughly three possible scenarios:

**First, a rate cut is coming, but with tough talk.** The Fed gives some sweeteners, then shifts to data and hints, "Don’t expect further cuts." In this case, BTC will probably fake a breakout first, surge for a bit, then fall back. If it can't hold the $95,000 level, we might see it fade away later.

**Second, an unexpected dovish stance.** Not only will they cut rates, but they might also hint at continued easing, even mention bond purchases. That would be great—BTC could head straight to $100,000, and other mainstream coins could ride the wave of enthusiasm, and altcoins will get rowdy.

**Third, no rate cut at all.** This move would be quite harsh, though the probability isn't high. If they do this, the market will definitely crash first, then slowly find a new equilibrium. It wouldn’t be a total collapse, but it wouldn’t be pretty in the short term.

The real key is in the details during the press conference...