Tonight's Federal Reserve decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut almost a certainty, the real suspense is how Powell will speak afterward.

The market's current focus is not whether there will be a cut, but whether there will be follow-up actions after the cut. If Powell signals that "it's time to stop," then BTC and ETH are likely to retrace; but if he leaves room for further easing next year, the crypto market could likely get a boost.

Think back to October, when Powell said inflation hadn't been contained yet and called December's actions "still too early," which made both bulls and bears hesitant to make big moves. Now, although inflation figures have improved somewhat, employment data remains volatile, and tariffs, fiscal policies, and other uncertainties are still in play. The Federal Reserve is probably feeling its way carefully.

Given the current situation, Powell will probably speak cautiously—no one wants to be responsible for a hard landing. This is bullish for short-term markets; both the crypto and US stock markets might see a small rally in tandem. But watch out for December 19—the increasing buzz of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. If that happens, global liquidity will be reshuffled again.

Honestly, this is a test of one's mindset at such a crossroads. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines tonight, wait until the decision is announced and Powell has spoken clearly, then act accordingly. In big moves, protecting your principal is more important than anything else; staying alive is the key to potential gains.