#以太坊行情技术解读 Ethereum Short-Term Market Trigger Point Analysis: Technical Signals and On-Chain Data Resonance

The experience of monitoring the market over the past week has led me to many reflections on the current Ethereum trend. The 1-hour K-line chart shows ETH repeatedly contesting the 3300 level—what underlying logic might be at play behind this?

From a technical perspective. The Bollinger Bands are showing an extreme contraction, with market volatility compressed to relatively low levels—this signal itself is quite intriguing. Extreme compression often signifies a critical point for direction choice; whether to break upward or downward remains a topic of debate among traders. The MACD indicator has crossed into a death cross, and green energy bars have appeared, clearly signaling a bearish trend on the surface. But the question is—such pessimistic technical signals are often overinterpreted by market participants. Historical experience shows that extreme sentiment moments are precisely good times for contrarian thinking.

Even more interesting are the on-chain movements. Data from the past seven days indicate that over 100,000 ETH have flowed from various exchanges into self-custody cold wallets, demonstrating significant accumulation strength. Meanwhile, the total ETH staking amount has hit a new high, with increasingly obvious traces of institutional-level capital deployment. The actions of smart money often precede shifts in market sentiment, making this combination of signals hard to explain as mere coincidence.

Macro-level support also warrants attention. Expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising, and the window for re-evaluating risk assets is opening. In such an environment, the core assets of the DeFi ecosystem tend to perform ahead of the curve. When the market is pessimistic, the courage to bottom-fish can often lead to subsequent gains.

Considering the extreme technical compression, active on-chain capital absorption, and the slightly warmer macro outlook, the probability of a short-term rebound for Ethereum is worth noting. The vicinity of 3300 can be seen as an important support level; if it can stabilize here, the rebound target could be set around 3450. Of course, the market is always full of uncertainties, but within the swings of fear and greed, trading opportunities are often born.

The more pessimistic the market sentiment, the more one needs to remain calm and observant. Those who can stay rational amid extreme emotions are often better positioned to seize turning points.