#加密生态动态追踪 Crude Oil Market Analysis for December 10 Evening

The current situation is quite clear—crude oil is struggling within a "capacity release + repeated bottom" dilemma.

Supply from Iraq has started to increase, directly pushing the oil price down to around $58.50. Although geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut provide some support, these expectations are not keeping pace with recent supply shocks. Currently, API inventory data has become a key factor for short-term volatility, and market sentiment remains cautious; nobody dares to be too aggressive.

**Technical Analysis**: The daily chart is still showing secondary fluctuations, with alternating bullish and bearish candles, as the price repeatedly tests the $56 support level. The MACD indicator is entangled below the zero line, indicating that while bears are still present, their momentum is weakening. However, there are no signs of a trend reversal. On the 1-hour chart, the moving average system is firmly pressing the price down, and the MACD remains below zero, indicating that the bears still hold the advantage. The morning's weak oscillation at low levels perfectly aligns with the overall downward cycle and the smaller cycle’s downward trend.

**Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, especially within the 58.6-58.7 range, with a light position for shorts. Place stop-loss at 58.9. The initial target is around 58.2; a stronger decline could reach 58.0.

Markets are changing rapidly, so it is recommended to closely monitor API data releases and geopolitical developments.