The scene at 3 AM might be more intense than you imagine.

A 25 basis point rate cut? That’s pretty much a done deal. But that’s not the key — what really matters is how Powell will "serve the plate." There’s a brewing possibility: he’s handing out sugar (rate cuts) while hinting, "Don’t expect this again next time." This kind of move is called an "hawkish rate cut" by insiders.

Now, the Fed’s situation is quite awkward. On one side, employment data continues to underperform, layoffs are happening one after another, job growth has significantly slowed down, and even officials have openly admitted that employment risks are rising. On the other side? Inflation is still stubborn; core PCE remains stuck at 2.8%, and tariffs are adding fuel to the fire.

Both ends are minefields. So, internally at the Fed, there are reportedly fierce debates, and tonight’s voting might see 3 to 4 dissenting votes — an unusually strong split in recent years. Powell is now like driving in dense fog, every turn of the wheel requires careful consideration.

**What does this mean for the crypto market?**

First, there will definitely be short-term turbulence. Regardless of whether the stance leans dovish or hawkish, the moment expectations are realized could spark waves.

But looking deeper, as soon as the rate cut cycle begins, the underlying logic of liquidity loosening remains unchanged. Money is like water, always seeking the lowest point to flow to — cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin $BTC as digital gold, Ethereum $ETH with its infrastructure ecosystem, and privacy coins like $ZEC are all natural water reservoirs.

Additionally, smart money tends to act early. Besides mainstream assets, community consensus-driven projects and early narrative ecosystems often become sensitive indicators during liquidity outflows, sometimes even exploding first.

Are you planning to stay up all night watching the markets, or set your orders and sleep? Do you think the bull market horn will sound, or will good news be exhausted, leading to a pullback?