2025-12-10 12:29:52

A recent crypto conference in the Middle East saw a founder of an exchange share an interesting perspective — the traditional "Bitcoin four-year halving cycle" theory may be becoming outdated.

His reasoning is straightforward: after large-scale institutional participation, the entire game is changing. Previously, markets dominated by retail investors were more easily influenced by halving events, with bull and bear transitions following relatively predictable patterns. But now, with Wall Street and sovereign funds entering the scene, the market's depth and resilience are different.

He mentioned a term — "super cycle." Simply put, the market may no longer experience the intense four-year cycles of the past, but rather enter a longer-term phase characterized by relatively stable but steadily rising prices. The underlying logic is the increased stability and long-term allocation needs brought by institutional funds.

Of course, this is just one opinion, and the market's future trajectory still depends on upcoming data. But this perspective is definitely worth paying attention to.

BTC-0.74%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ProveMyZK

· 12-13 12:03

Well... it sounds nice, but I just don't believe that institutions can tame the crypto world. Is the halving cycle outdated? Let's wait and see, by then Wall Street will also have to kneel. The name "super cycle" sounds like an excuse for trapping oneself. Institutions entering the market with strong stability? Their methods of pumping and dumping are still the same old tricks. I think I heard this two years ago, and then nothing happened.

View OriginalReply0

BearMarketBard

· 12-13 08:53

Here comes the "super cycle" again, I’m already getting ear calluses from hearing it. Can those folks on Wall Street really stabilize this?

View OriginalReply0

ValidatorViking

· 12-11 08:25

nah this "supercycle" take is just cope from someone who wants smoother markets... institutions didn't kill the halving cycle, they just added another layer of manipulation on top of the old one. data'll tell the real story here.

Reply0

LiquidationHunter

· 12-10 13:00

Institutional entry has indeed changed the game, but it's a bit early to say the halving cycle is outdated. What does the data say?

View OriginalReply0

PriceOracleFairy

· 12-10 12:51

nah this "supercycle" narrative is just cope tbh... until we see actual institutional capital staying put through a 40% dump, everything's still just noise masquerading as signal

Reply0

ApeEscapeArtist

· 12-10 12:49

Is the four-year cycle dead? Uh… Wall Street folks haven't even fully figured out the crypto world yet, don't jump to conclusions so quickly. Halving is still halving; when institutions come in, it might actually get more intense, and then there'll be another set of ways to profit. "Super cycle" sounds like another overhyped marketing term; frankly, it's still a gamble on long-term upward movement. I'll believe it once things truly stabilize, but there's no sign of that in this volatility. This guy probably just wants retail investors to hold their coins with confidence. Don't buy the dip.

View OriginalReply0

ChainWanderingPoet

· 12-10 12:48

The term "super cycle" sounds like an excuse for trapping oneself... Can institutional entry really change the halving curse? I doubt it; we’ll have to wait for a bear market to see.

View OriginalReply0

faded_wojak.eth

· 12-10 12:47

Is the halving cycle outdated? Haha, once Wall Street comes in, it’s time to reshuffle. --- Super cycle sounds good, but I bet this time it’s all air. --- Institutional stability? Don’t make me laugh; a single tweet can still crash the market. --- The four-year cycle probably really needs to change. All we can say is survival of the fittest. --- This sounds like a defense of your own holdings... but the logic does hold up. --- Will the market still be wild like before once sovereign funds step in? I doubt it. --- Smooth upward volatility? Then what’s the point of playing; there’s no thrill anymore. --- It’s all about institutional rules; retail investors still have to follow the crowd and eat the scraps. --- New cycle, super cycle, every time they talk about a new story, but it’s still the same old tune. --- Once Wall Street took the helm, it indeed became different, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.

View OriginalReply0

RektDetective

· 12-10 12:41

Institutional entry indeed changes the game, but I still think the power of retail investors is underestimated. We'll see how it plays out.

View OriginalReply0

defi_detective

· 12-10 12:34

Is the four-year cycle theory dead? That’s a nice way to put it. In reality, it’s just that when institutions come in, the way retail investors get swept up has changed, haha.

View OriginalReply0