2025-12-10 13:00:32

At 3 a.m. Federal Reserve Meeting, rate cuts have become a certainty, but the real test is just beginning.

This time is a typical "hawkish rate cut"—appears bullish but actually hides dangers. Yes, interest rates will be lowered, but Powell will never give the markets a comforting assurance. He will clearly state: this cut doesn’t mean the next one will be. Want continued easing? Only if there are clear signs of a recession in the employment market.

More critically, there is a split within the Federal Reserve. Among the 12 voting members, 5 hawkish members directly oppose the rate cut. This is not a unanimous decision but a compromise amid division. The latest dot plot most likely indicates that there will be no more than two cuts throughout 2026, with rates remaining above 3% until the end of the year. Easing is not that easy to achieve.

Trying to spark a Bitcoin surge with a 25 basis point cut? Dream on. The market has already fully priced in this positive news. The real risk comes from the hawkish tone of the Fed. If Powell takes a tough stance, a stronger dollar is imminent, and risk assets including ETH will face pressure.

So, how to operate? My advice is simple: **Stay cautious, control the pace.**

**Don’t chase the highs.** If prices spike immediately after the news is announced, it’s often a trap set in advance. Emotional surges are easy to be caught holding the bag.

**Reduce leverage.** Tonight’s volatility will be intense. Trading high-leverage contracts is a gamble—survival is the top priority.

**Wait for the news to settle.** The first hour after the decision release is full of emotional swings. The true direction will only become clear after Powell’s press conference and the market’s full digestion. The window from 3 a.m. to 5 a.m. determines the overall trend for the week.

The Fed is now offering a calming capsule, not an emergency shot. A genuine bull market requires sustained, stable liquidity expectations, not short-term policy easing.

In this turning situation, what is the strategic outlook for 2026? The key lies in understanding the real meaning behind the dot plot and identifying certainty opportunities overlooked by the market.

BTC-1.56%

ETH-0.48%

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 12-13 07:09

Oh wow, Powell really kept a low profile with this rate cut. The behind-the-scenes hawkish language is truly the secret weapon. The market is about to be sliced again. The window from 3 to 5 a.m. is destined to be another harvest time for the little guys. Basically, it's just a relief capsule. Don't expect a surge; I’d rather reduce leverage to protect myself. Five hawkish dissenters, this division is a bit interesting. Continuing easing in 2026? Dream on. Nobody truly believes this rate cut can boost Bitcoin; the good news has already been digested. I'm really impressed by those who chase the highs—every time, someone rushes in to buy the dip. This trap is perfectly set. Let's wait until Powell's press conference is over. The past hour was all about emotions; the real market moves come afterward.

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TommyTeacher1

· 12-12 21:42

Hawkish rate cuts are just a facade. I see through the tricks of this round of leek harvesting. Don't tell me about any guaranteed opportunities. Well said, five dissenting votes. The Federal Reserve itself isn't unified. This isn't a rate cut at all; it's just paving the way for future rate hikes. It's both reducing leverage and advising against chasing highs. Sounds good, but who can predict the market at 3 a.m.? I bet this time it will surge directly, and those caught in the trap might not have a good outcome. Reducing rates twice in 26 years? Buddy, I was already out back then. I no longer rely on the Fed to save the market. Powell's firm statement caused the dollar to instantly kill all risk assets; BTC is useless here. That's the game rule. So-called relief capsules, I think they're just chronic poison. Just wait and see, everyone. An hour before the news drops, everyone’s emotions are all over the place. Just hearing this makes me angry. Isn't this just to create panic?

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DefiPlaybook

· 12-10 13:30

Based on the dot matrix data, the maximum of two rate cuts in 2026 has been basically settled, and the market has digested this information much faster than we expected. It is worth noting that five hawkish members directly oppose this rate cut, with internal divisions more severe than anticipated. From an on-chain capital flow perspective, the trading volume of large transactions in the two hours before the decision did not significantly increase, indicating that the market had already prepared in advance. The key risk point is during the one-hour press conference with Powell; if the language leans hawkish, the pressure from a stronger US dollar index will far exceed the benefits of a 25bp rate cut. It is recommended to focus on the window from 3 to 5 o'clock, as the true direction judgment can only be confirmed after the market has fully digested the information.

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TokenUnlocker

· 12-10 13:29

Hawkish rate cuts are just a smokescreen; the real killer move is still ahead. Don't be fooled by this surge.

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MevHunter

· 12-10 13:26

Hawkish rate cuts are just a facade; the real killer move is in Powell's mouth. Don't think 25bp can save the crypto world; it's already been digested. The window from 3 to 5 a.m. is the key; sleep is a luxury. Reducing leverage is not just a suggestion; it's a necessary course for survival. Waiting until 2026? Let's survive this week first.

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MoonRocketman

· 12-10 13:18

In this hawkish rate cut move, the RSI has already approached the near-orbit ceiling, and the actual launch window hasn't opened yet... Wait for the news to settle before watching how the Bollinger Bands move, don't get caught up in the emotional surge.

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RugResistant

· 12-10 13:16

Hawkish rate cut? This is just a wolf in sheep's clothing. It looks like a rise but is actually cutting leeks. I don't believe Bitcoin will skyrocket because of a 25bp cut. Once Powell speaks, the US dollar will take off in minutes, and risk assets will have to kneel. I definitely won't buy into the emotional surge at 3 AM; set stop-losses and go to sleep, hoping to see a bull market alive. The dot plot is the real truth—will there still be two more cuts in 2026? The easing door is tightly closed; don't be fooled by false positives.

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