#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 Tonight’s battle has the entire global financial market holding its breath. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is imminent, and whether in the crypto world or traditional finance, everyone’s eyes are fixed on the moment at 3 a.m.

$BTC The market has already surpassed the $100,000 mark, and $ETH has also surged near $4,000. Behind this rally, in fact, the market is betting on one outcome — that the Fed will continue to ease monetary policy.

Market expectations are very clear: the Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates for the third time, by 25 basis points each, pushing the federal funds rate into the 3.5%-3.75% range. It sounds like good news, but the issue is — this might not be a usual rate cut.

🔥 The real focus is here

There is now significant divergence within the Fed. The dovish side is calling for continued rate cuts to stimulate the economy, while the hawks are ringing alarm bells: inflation remains high, and there’s no room for further cuts. So this time, we might see a “hawkish rate cut” — lowering rates while issuing a warning that “this could be the last chance.” The market is most sensitive to such signals.

📊 Four details that could influence the future

**Powell’s wording** — As soon as this guy speaks, analysts need to use a magnifying glass to listen; every word hints at how much room there is for the next move.

**Dot plot voting data** — It shows how divided internal opinions are, leaving no room for ambiguity.

**Economic fundamentals** — Inflation is easing but still above target, while employment is a bit soft. These conflicting signals make policy decisions tricky.

**Balance sheet operations** — Should they restart bond purchases? This is an implicit liquidity signal.

⚡ How the market might react

If a hawkish tone is conveyed, tonight could see a big ripple. Rate cuts are already expected by everyone; the key is how the Fed will phrase it — “Is there more to come?” This not only determines the short-term trend over the next month or two but also sets the tone for the entire year’s asset allocation.

The calm before the storm often foreshadows a tempest. Are your positions ready?