Tonight is yet another FOMC night, so here are some practical experiences summarized from real trading.

**At 3 a.m. when the data is released, don’t rush to act**

This is the time when I see the most people making mistakes. Why? Because at that moment, the screen is filled with bots抢新闻 (scraping news), with high-frequency algorithms and keyword-triggered trades—ordinary people’s reaction speed is simply not enough.

Even more problematic is that the order book is thin as paper, with very wide bid-ask spreads, and slippage can eat up a large portion of your position. Furthermore, algorithmic trading only recognizes keywords, which is a reflexive mechanical operation. By the time people finish reading the official statement, market sentiment may have already reversed.

So, what should you do at this time?

Focus on three things—US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and Nasdaq futures. Observe their direction first. If the bond market leans hawkish while stocks celebrate dovishness, this split indicates that the market itself is confused. It's best to stay on the sidelines and not guess blindly.

**The real battleground begins half an hour later during the press conference**

The Powell press conference at 3:30 often triggers a second round of pricing. There are three details worth noting:

First, the opening statement’s initial paragraph. Pay attention to whether he still emphasizes the phrase “relying on data,” or if he directly signals a dovish or hawkish stance.

Second, in the Q&A session, see if there are any changes in wording regarding neutral interest rates, financial stability, or the labor market. These seemingly macro terms often hint at a policy shift.

Third, pay attention to conditional statements. For example, phrases like “if inflation rises again, we do not rule out further rate hikes” can be easily amplified by the market, triggering chain reactions.

**Tonight’s meeting is a bit different**

This time, the meeting includes economic projections and the dot plot, which carry more weight than usual. The dot plot directly reflects officials’ expectations for future interest rate paths and significantly impacts market liquidity expectations in the crypto space.

In short, don’t be fooled by the candlesticks in the first few minutes. Be patient and wait for the market to fully digest the information.