The pill at 3 a.m. probably isn't easy to swallow.

A 25 basis point rate cut? The market already guessed this early on. But don't rush to celebrate—what's really critical isn't whether they cut or not, but how they talk about it afterward. This time, it's very likely to feature a classic "hawkish rate cut": giving you sweeteners on the surface, then telling you not to read too much into it.

What does a hawkish rate cut mean? It means that inside the Federal Reserve, there are fierce debates—supporters and opponents are nearly deadlocked. Powell's task tonight is very clear—pour cold water on expectations. He'll tell you this rate cut is an exception; further cuts? The threshold is high, and they might only move if employment data really collapses.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

In the short term, don't expect dovish easing to boost prices; instead, be wary of being "clawed" by the "eagle." After the decision is announced, the market will be lively for that hour, but the true direction will only be clear after Powell's press conference. If his tone is even more hawkish than expected, it's not surprising to see Bitcoin retrace to 85,000 or even lower for support.

The long-term logic remains unchanged, but the pace has indeed slowed. The rate cut cycle is still on track, and liquidity will come eventually—that's the confidence behind a bull market. However, the Federal Reserve clearly wants to ease gradually this time, making a mad bull run unlikely. Instead, the market will probably experience sharp volatility, gradually forming a new bottom.

How to respond? Remember three points:

Don’t chase high. If the market surges immediately after the news, it’s likely a trap.

Control your hands. Before Powell makes any statement, watch more and act less. The real trend often reveals itself 12 to 24 hours after the decision.

Wait for the deep pit. Hawkish signals can actually be an opportunity—if the market drops due to disappointment, that’s a good time to enter gradually.

Tonight, if the script truly plays out as "hawkish," which key levels must not be broken? Which altcoins will be the first to collapse? These are the lines of life and death to watch closely.