#数字资产生态回暖 The Federal Reserve's "big test" arrives at 3 a.m.!

89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut—can the crypto market leverage this opportunity for a rebound?

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting decision will be announced—this is not only the last interest rate decision of the year but also a crucial moment that influences Bitcoin, global stock markets, and financial liquidity.

CME Fed Funds Futures data shows that the market has priced in an 89.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Once confirmed, this will be the third consecutive rate cut of the year, with the federal funds rate target range lowered to 3.5%-3.75%. However, for investors, "whether to cut rates" is no longer the main focus. The real point of interest is—will the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish stance along with this rate cut?

After all, the Fed just announced the end of its balance sheet reduction on December 1, and even hinted at possibly restarting balance sheet expansion in January, purchasing $40-45 billion in short-term government bonds monthly. This shift in liquidity directly impacts the valuation expectations of crypto assets.

This meeting requires investors to pay close attention to two underlying signals:

**First: Will the dot plot revise downward the expectations for rate cuts next year?** If Fed officials collectively lower their forecasts for rate cuts next year, global asset pricing logic could instantly adjust, and liquidity expectations may cool significantly.

**Second: The wording in Powell’s press conference.** The key is whether he will reinforce the stance that "subsequent rate cuts will be more stringent." If hawkish language appears, the market could experience significant short-term volatility. It’s worth noting that division within the Fed has become public, and this voting could see dissenting votes, or even committee members advocating for a radical 50 basis point cut. Such disagreement often amplifies market uncertainty.

**Liquidity tightening or loosening determines short-term trends.** A rate cut does not mean guaranteed gains. If Powell insists on a tight monetary stance, even with balance sheet expansion, the market may initially decline before rebounding; conversely, if he softens his tone, loosening liquidity expectations could lead to a rebound in Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

The question facing investors now: Will this be a confirmed hawkish rate cut? Or will Powell surprise the market? Should we hedge risks with our current positions beforehand, or wait until after the meeting to make decisions?