Tonight at 3 a.m., a pivotal moment that could reshape the trajectory of the crypto market is approaching—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement.

Market expectations are mostly locked in for a 25 basis point rate cut, but what truly determines the trend is what signals Powell will send. If the Fed Chair's remarks lean dovish, hinting at continued easing in the future, it would be a genuine positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. A rate cut weakens the dollar's appeal, prompting funds to seek new outlets, and cryptocurrencies naturally become one of the options. The more direct impact is that a weakening dollar lowers the cost for investors in other countries to buy crypto, potentially boosting demand.

But don’t celebrate too early. If the Fed emphasizes ongoing inflation pressures while cutting rates, hinting at a possible pause later on, the market might give you a harsh reality check. Moreover, this rate cut has long been anticipated and priced in, creating a typical "price is already baked in" scenario. Once the actual decision hits, profit-taking could lead to a rapid sell-off.

Looking at the market's internal structure, the derivatives market's leverage is alarmingly high right now, with open positions piled up like a powder keg. During such times, any sharp volatility could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, and the market could accelerate uncontrollably.

On the technical side, Bitcoin is repeatedly testing the critical $90,000 level—if it holds steady, the next resistance zone is between $94,000 and $95,000. For Ethereum, the key level is $3,100—a crucial support and resistance point—breaking through could see it rise to the $3,300-$3,400 range. These levels will resonate with macro news, and market swings could surpass many people's expectations.

In short, tonight is destined to be anything but calm.