Tomorrow dawn, the Federal Reserve is set to make its move again.

This time a 25 basis point cut? The market’s answer is nearly a certainty—CME tool shows the probability approaching 90%. But what’s more interesting isn’t whether they cut or not, but how Powell will speak.

**Three signals are already on the table**

First, employment. Last month’s ADP data directly contradicted expectations—it wasn’t sluggish growth, but a decline—down 32,000 jobs, the worst since March 2023. The government shutdown did impact some statistics, but the trend is clear.

What about inflation? In September, core CPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month, dropping to 3.0% year-over-year, the lowest in half a year. Although October data is absent, the cooling trend remains steady.

Looking at consumer spending. The Fed’s Beige Book contains more painful details: from October to November, those sensitive to prices—middle- and low-income families—have started tightening their wallets, cutting back on non-essential items. The engine of the economy shows signs of stalling.

**"Hawkish rate cut"—Powell’s balancing act**

The market widely bets on one possibility: a cut will happen, but with strong language. This is what’s called a "hawkish rate cut"—easing liquidity while emphasizing "don’t get too excited, the hurdles ahead are high." This move can soothe hawks internally and also cool down the market, preventing excessive optimism.

For the crypto market, this ambiguous stance might be more nerve-wracking than an outright easing. $ETH, $BNB, $DOGE —these mainstream tokens might be more driven by sentiment than policy in the short term.

**The 2026 suspense: who takes over, how will the cut be made?**

Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Regardless of who takes over, the easing trajectory is basically set—what remains are the pace and intensity.

Currently, three candidates each have different styles:
- **Kevin Hasset** (most favored): a hawkish, aggressive candidate aiming for sub-3% interest rates, more willing to cooperate with government economic goals. Federal Reserve independence? That might be compromised.
- **Christopher Waller** (current board member): a cautious, data-driven hawk, advocating gradual rate cuts, trying to balance political pressure and policy independence.

The crypto market is extremely sensitive to liquidity. If a loosening cycle truly begins in 2026, regardless of speed, it’s a long-term positive for on-chain assets. But at this moment, what’s more important are short-term fluctuations—Powell’s words tomorrow morning might matter more than the rate cut itself.