Today, the A-shares staged another act of "shrinking volume and face-changing." The turnover directly shrank by 120 billion, dropping to 1.79 trillion—this figure is barely enough to fill a gap in a bull market. The market was even more dramatic: in the morning, plunging through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, scaring short-term traders into cold sweat; in the afternoon, suddenly stopping the sell-off, with selling pressure like a cut power supply, and the index climbed back near the 5-day moving average and lay flat.

This operation looks familiar, right? A typical box-range oscillation tug-of-war. The current market is like being trapped in an elevator—reluctant to push upward( and afraid of missing the boat), yet also not daring to jump down( fearing a fall). The ChiNext is quite resilient, standing confidently above the short-term moving averages throughout, forming a stark contrast with the main board. But how long can this divergence last? Historical experience tells us: either the main board lifts the ChiNext up together, or the ChiNext drags the main board down with it.

**Sector Showdown: Hainan Suddenly Explodes**

Individual stock data doesn’t look very good—2800 stocks down vs. 2400 up, more declines than rises. But the real interesting part is sector rotation:

Hainan sector suddenly goes crazy, surging over 6% in a single day, leading the gains. Post-market data shows institutional buying, but the intensity is moderate, clearly not planning to go all-in. Gold, retail, real estate—these old familiar sectors also rally, but institutions are just watching passively the whole time.

The losers list is even more dramatic: Cultivated diamonds cool off, banks and photovoltaic sectors continue to lie flat. Conversely, commercial aerospace, CPO, storage chips, and energy metals—these tech-oriented sectors—hold strong under pressure, with only two AI software sub-sectors dancing along with the market.

So, the conclusion is clear: Wednesday’s adjustment is more like "weighting stocks pretend to be dead, causing index distortion," and the market sentiment isn’t as bad as it looks.

**Three Messages to Watch**

First: Foreign media reports that the US approved Nvidia’s H200 chip export to China, but we are considering restricting access channels. This impacts tech stocks’ psychology significantly, especially the semiconductor industry chain.

Second: The main event—at 3 am Beijing time today, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision! Half an hour later, Powell holds a press conference. As soon as he speaks, global markets will shake. Will they cut rates? How will they handle next year? The answers to these questions directly determine short-term liquidity.

Third: A relatively mild update—on December 12, the Ministry of Finance will continue issuing special national bonds, rolling over the same amount without increasing the deficit. This is routine operation with limited impact.

**Fund Flows Reveal True Market Sentiment**

On Wednesday, institutional and retail funds completely fell apart. Institutional buying shrank, selling pressure increased, with a slight net outflow. Retail traders are even more aggressive: slightly reduced buying, but selling plummeted to near zero—almost no large-scale selling of any major stocks all day!

How rare is this phenomenon? It’s not an exaggeration to call it "extremely rare." Retail funds have keen senses—they only hold onto stocks that can still rise or have no better alternatives outside. Either way, it indicates that the short-term market isn’t entirely bleak.

But the problem is: institutions and retail funds are each playing their own game, with no coordination. Retail is slightly increasing positions in commercial aerospace, while institutions immediately cut back; other sectors show no movement from either side. Under this scenario, expecting a new leading sector to suddenly emerge and take over? Difficult.

**What about the future outlook?**

Honestly, it’s a “wait-and-see” phase. If tonight’s Fed meeting hints at multiple rate cuts next year(, with improved external liquidity, the A-shares are likely to rise; if Powell insists on inflation pressures), then it will continue to grind sideways.

Domestic policies are relatively stable, but lacking explosive catalysts. Retail funds not selling shows good chip-locking; but institutional hesitation suggests large funds are still waiting for signals. At such times, the greatest test of resolve—buying at high prices easily leads to being trapped, while cutting losses fears missing out.

For non-long-term investors, remember one thing: layout is just the beginning, discipline is the lifeline. The market won’t give you opportunities just because you’re anxious. Patience for that “institutional and retail resonance + news flow alignment” moment is the key to breaking the deadlock.