Tonight's FOMC meeting is likely to pour cold water on the market.

Multiple leading institutions' latest research reports point to the same conclusion: although a rate cut is highly probable to materialize, the threshold has quietly been raised. Investors expecting the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy may be disappointed.

Most notably, internal voting has shown disagreements. This is no small matter—FOMC members are beginning to differ in their assessments of inflation and economic conditions, meaning the previously anticipated "continuous rate cuts" are essentially off the table. The greater the divergence, the harder Powell will find it to give clear dovish statements, and the policy outlook will become more ambiguous.

Barclays has issued a direct warning: a pause in rate cuts is very likely in January. They believe the upcoming policy statement will include hawkish language, and the "cut at every meeting" pace after December will probably come to an end. This will directly reduce market pricing for future easing, and risk assets may face short-term downward pressure.

JPMorgan's perspective is even more nuanced: the future policy focus will shift to "magnitude and timing of adjustments." In plain terms, this means indirectly weakening rate cut expectations—neither promising a clear path nor committing to a steady pace—such statements are bound to trigger short-term volatility. As a high-beta asset class, the crypto market will find it almost impossible to remain unaffected.

As for what Powell might say tonight? Likely the classic "dovish hawkish" rhetoric: he won't be too tough on the market to scare investors, but will repeatedly emphasize that the threshold for rate cuts before 2026 remains very high, hinting at a possible pause in the short term. The goal is to stabilize market sentiment while leaving room for policy adjustments.

In summary: don’t expect any dovish surprises tonight. Internal disagreements, tightening statements, and Powell raising the threshold—all these signals are already clearly cooling expectations for rate cuts. The crypto market should be alert to the risk of liquidity tightening and potential pullbacks, with short-term volatility possibly being more intense than expected.