Recently, a major platform released a macroeconomic analysis, and the conclusion is quite sobering: everyone is hoping for rate cuts, but this time it may not be the bull market scenario you expect.

Let's start with the good news—the labor market is indeed softening. The number of people actively changing jobs is decreasing, and the resignation rate has dropped to 1.8%, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Layoffs? That number is climbing to a three-year high. As wage pressures ease, the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates becomes even stronger, which is originally a bullish signal for BTC and other risk assets.

But looking at the consumption side, the picture changes.

Credit card debt has already surpassed $1.2 trillion, with average interest rates soaring above 20%. In plain terms, many households are now relying on credit cards to cover daily expenses. How long can this situation last? Once the economy encounters some turbulence, the probability of demand collapsing sharply is quite high. The market's vulnerability is evident; expecting risk assets to rise steadily? That's difficult.

Inflation is also not calming down. The CPI year-over-year still fluctuates between 2.5% and 2.7%, far from the Fed’s 2% target. This creates an awkward situation: cutting rates too quickly might overstimulate, but slowing too much risks economic contraction. Policy swings are unpredictable, which is the biggest headache for assets like BTC.

So, the conclusion is straightforward—

While rate cuts can indeed support prices, weak employment data combined with surging debt loads make the market more sensitive to any turbulence. When favorable policies meet weak fundamentals, the final result may not be a steady rise but rather amplified volatility.

At this stage, don’t take rate cuts as a signal to blindly go long. Weak employment + high debt levels are setting a volatility trap for BTC and risk assets, ready to be triggered at any moment.