Tonight's FOMC meeting, the highlights are far more than just "whether to cut rates or not."

Several institutions' forward-looking reports are all conveying the same signal: the Federal Reserve is not unwilling to cut, but the threshold has been significantly raised. The market's optimistic expectation of "cutting 25 basis points at every meeting" may be met with a reality check.

First, let's discuss the most noteworthy aspect—voting disagreements.

This time, there is a high likelihood of dissenting votes within the FOMC. What does this mean? It indicates that the committee members already have clear disagreements on inflation and economic conditions. The greater the disagreement, the less likely Powell is to give a clear dovish guidance at the press conference. After all, he needs to balance different factions' positions, and the most probable outcome is a cautious stance.

Barclays' prediction is more direct: the policy statement may include hawkish language, hinting that the January meeting could directly pause rate hikes. If that happens, the path of "continuous rate cuts" will essentially be cut off. The market's pricing for future easing will be quickly compressed.

JPMorgan's interpretation angle is also quite interesting. They believe the statement will shift toward "focusing on the magnitude and timing of adjustments." This phrase sounds neutral but is actually a covert way of saying: whether to cut or not is not important; when and how much to cut is the key. In other words—don't expect us to give you a clear rate-cut roadmap.

Slowing pace coupled with an unclear path will naturally be interpreted by the market as a decreasing probability of rate cuts. Short-term volatility is almost inevitable.

Finally, let's consider the signals Powell himself might send.

Analysts generally expect him to adopt a strategy of "diplomatic hawkishness, with a hawkish effect." On one hand, he avoids directly frightening the market; on the other hand, he emphasizes that the rate-cut threshold is very high—especially before 2026. The specific language might be: "We will adjust flexibly based on data, but inflation has not fully cooled yet, and the labor market remains resilient..."

In plain terms: he won't explicitly commit to further cuts, implying a possible pause in the short term, but he won't say they will raise rates either.

To sum up tonight's main theme: the dovish signals the market expects are highly unlikely to appear. FOMC dissent, hawkish language in the statement, Powell raising the threshold—these combined pressures make it very clear that the pace of future rate cuts is slowing down.

Be prepared—there may be intense volatility tonight.