What does the market think about this FOMC meeting?

To be honest, overall it is quite bullish. A 25 basis point rate cut in December is almost certain, with the policy rate expected to fall into the 3.5%-3.75% range. What does a rate cut mean? Borrowing costs decrease, American households face less pressure, consumption can pick up, and businesses are more willing to invest. This serves as a stabilizing measure for the real economy.

But what’s more worth paying attention to is another matter — the potential restart of balance sheet expansion in January 2026. The monthly bond purchases are expected to be between $40 billion and $45 billion, which is no small figure. As year-end approaches, liquidity tends to tighten, and this operation can help fill the liquidity gap, providing reassurance to the market.

Looking at personnel changes, the frontrunners for the new Chair are generally dovish. Historical experience shows that restarting the rate cut cycle is often a bullish signal for risk assets. Traditional markets like US stocks may continue to strengthen, and the crypto market will also be driven by sentiment.

So in the short term, there might be some hawkish rhetoric to scare people, but the overall tone of easing is already quite clear. This move has more bullish elements.