#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming, and global markets are watching this wave.

At 3 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest rate decision. The market generally expects this to be the third consecutive rate cut, with a cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.5%-3.75%. $BTC $ETH Recent fluctuations in crypto assets are, to some extent, digesting this expectation.

But the key is not whether they cut or not, but how they cut.

The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing an obvious "split within the ranks." One side sees a softening labor market (October job openings are shrinking, layoffs are increasing) and advocates for continued easing; the other side focuses on inflation data — although the core PCE in September dropped to 2.8%, it is still above the 2% target, and they believe the room for rate cuts is limited. So, a new approach has emerged — "hawkish rate cuts": cutting on schedule while hinting that "this may be the last or one of the last cuts."

**Key points to watch:**

Jerome Powell's press conference is the most important weather vane. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Fed's statement might become more cautious, re-emphasizing that "further adjustments require more evidence," which effectively raises the bar for the next rate cut.

Second, opposition votes may reach a new high. Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted against last month, and she is almost certain to oppose again this time. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, concerned about inflation, may also vote against. Vice Chair Lael Brainard might take the opposite extreme, demanding a 50 basis points cut in one go.

Finally, pay attention to a signal: whether the Fed will launch a new bond purchase program. They just announced to stop shrinking the balance sheet in October, but considering recent liquidity pressures in the market, they may need to restart purchases — not quite called "quantitative easing," but enough to signal easing to the market.

Overall, the focus of this decision is how the Fed balances the contradiction between "employment concerns" and "inflation risks." The magnitude of the rate cut might not be in question, but the tone of subsequent policies will truly influence global asset allocation — including key factors affecting the crypto market.