The recent market rebound hasn't fully heated up yet, and suddenly, the employment data from the US has dealt everyone a chilling blow. This time, it's not just a simple numbers game — the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans are very likely to change, and cryptocurrencies are probably going to suffer along with it.

To get straight to the point: the US labor market has completely shifted from the "employee's golden age of choosing employers" to a buyer-dominated situation where "employers choose employees." This turning point has a more profound impact on the crypto market than a mere price correction.

Looking at the key indicator — the October Quits Rate plummeted to its lowest level since May 2020, with 187,000 fewer people voluntarily quitting. Don't underestimate this change. Over the past few years, the quit rate has been a leading indicator of employment market heat: workers daring to resign voluntarily typically have better offers or are confident they can find another job quickly. Now, this momentum has disappeared, indicating that people are starting to "cherish their lives" and keep their jobs, with a clear decline in job-hopping confidence.

Another more painful data point: the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons in October is only slightly above 1. Simply put, one unemployed person is competing for roughly one job opening, making competition extremely fierce. Under such market conditions, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates is greatly diminished — with employment not collapsing, why rush to loosen monetary policy?

For the crypto space, this means liquidity expectations will cool down. If the Federal Reserve delays easing, high funding costs will persist, and the attractiveness of risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) will continue to be suppressed. Don’t just focus on the fluctuations in the K-line; what you should really be alert to is the shift in the macro narrative. Whether your end-of-year wallet can grow depends on how these data points evolve in the coming days.