Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain. But the real focus is on the language— the policy statement is likely to directly raise the bar for future rate cuts, signaling a hawkish stance.

There is still room for maneuver on the balance sheet, and tech stocks and US Treasuries are likely to experience another divergence. What will Bitcoin do? We'll find out at 3 a.m. The market's bet this time is not whether rates will be lowered, but whether the Federal Reserve will dare to continue its easing policy.