The market isn't sweating today's rate decision—it's the 2026 roadmap that's got everyone on edge. Prediction markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut this session, practically a done deal. But here's the catch: back in September, the Fed's dot plot hinted at just one more cut for next year, with rates settling around 3.4% by year-end. Now traders are bracing for guidance that could swing neutral or even turn restrictive. The real volatility trigger? Not what happens today, but what the Fed signals about where rates are headed twelve months out. That's the variable risk assets are actually pricing in right now.