#数字资产生态回暖 December 11th, according to the latest data from the CME interest rate futures market, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this month is as high as 89.4%, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining the current rate level.

Looking further into the future — until January next year, the situation becomes more complex. The market expects only a 7.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold steady, while the probability of a single 25 basis point rate cut is 68.5%. But there is a key detail here: nearly a quarter of the probability (23.8%) suggests that the Federal Reserve will have a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points during this cycle.

In other words, the market is preparing for a more aggressive easing policy. For cryptocurrencies, a rate cut cycle typically releases liquidity, which often boosts the valuation of risk assets.